Gulf of Mexico: Hurricane Rafael tracking northwestward away from Cuba as of late Nov. 6 /update 6

Hurricane Rafael is tracking northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico away from Cuba late Nov. 6, following landfall just east of Playa Majana in Artemisa Province around 16:15 Nov. 6. As of 19:00 EST, the system's center of circulation was approximately 30 km (20 miles) north of Bahia Honda, Cuba.

Forecast models indicate that the storm will weaken into a Category 1 hurricane and then into a tropical storm as it tracks west-northwestward, then westward across the central Gulf of Mexico Nov. 7-11.

As of late Nov. 6, authorities have issued the following watches and warnings:

• Hurricane Warning: Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth provinces in Cuba

• Tropical Storm Warning: Villa Clara and Cienfuegos provinces in Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, as well as Dry Tortugas in Florida

Authorities will likely update and extend the coverage of the weather advisories over the coming hours and days as the storm approaches.

Hurricane conditions will likely continue in parts of western Cuba over the coming hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys through Nov. 6.

Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean through early Nov. 7, especially across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 10-20 cm (4-8 inches) are forecast over western Cuba, with locally heavier totals of up to 30 cm (12 inches) possible over higher terrain. Flash flooding and landslides are possible. Additional rainfall of 5-10 cm (2-4 inches) is likely across the Cayman Islands. Rainfall totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected for the lower and middle Florida Keys. A few tornadoes are possible over the Keys and far southwestern mainland Florida Nov. 6.

Storm surge flooding along the coast of Cuba should subside late Nov. 6. The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause flooding in normally dry areas near the coast from rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach 0.3-0.9 m (1-3 feet) above ground in the Dry Tortugas and 0.3-0.6 m (1-2 feet) in the lower Florida Keys if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide. Swells generated by the system will continue to affect much of the western Caribbean over the coming days and spread east to west across the Gulf of Mexico coast through Nov. 9. These swells will likely cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Aviation authorities in the Cayman Islands have announced that Owen Roberts International Airport (GCM) on Grand Cayman will resume operations at 09:00 Nov. 6 and Sir Captain Charles Kirkconnell International Airport (CYB) on Cayman Brac at 12:00 Nov. 6 having been closed due to Rafael. Schools, banks, courts, and most public sector offices were closed in the Cayman Islands Nov. 5 until further notice. Authorities have advised that they will carry out comprehensive damage assessments in the Cayman Islands as weather conditions begin to improve through Nov. 6.

Much of Cuba is still recovering from the collapse of the power grid Oct. 18 and the passage of Hurricane Oscar, which made landfall near Baracoa in Guantanamo Province at around 18:10 Oct. 20. Authorities in Cuba have already evacuated more than 66,000 people in Guantanamo Province in far eastern Cuba, ahead of predicted heavy rainfall and flooding. Thousands of people in the western Artemisa Province, more than 11,000 people in southern Sancti Spiritus Province, and more than 50,000 people in Havana City were evacuated mainly from coastal zones and flood-prone areas before landfall. Sunwing evacuated all Sunwing customers in Cayo Largo del Sur the afternoon of Nov. 5. Authorities placed western and central Cuba under a state of alarm, urging people to limit their movement. The national electrical grid collapsed Nov. 6 due to strong winds; all of Cuba is without electricity.

The Cuban Aviation Corporation has suspended airport operations across western Cuba, including Rafael Cabrera Mustelier (GER), Vilo Acuna International (CYO), Jose Marti International (HAV), Juan Gualberto Gomez International (VRA) airports Nov. 6-7. Abel Santamaria (SNU) and Jaime Gonzalez (CFG) airports are also closed through at least noon Nov. 7. Officials have also canceled maritime traffic between the ports of Batabano and Nueva Gerona and boat services in Havana Bay. Officials suspended buses connecting Baracoa and Maisi, all bus operations to and from Havana, and interprovincial routes from Sancti Spiritus to Artemisa. Train 15 from Havana to Holguin and Train 14 from Guantanamo to Havana were canceled Nov. 6. Cancellation of interprovincial train services in the western region, from Matanzas to Pinar del Rio, is in effect from midnight Nov. 4. Schools are closed since Nov. 5. Oil companies have begun evacuating nonessential personnel from oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and those with easily overwhelmed drainage systems. If weather conditions prove hazardous, localized evacuations, flash flooding, and landslides are possible.

Inclement weather could trigger localized business, transport, and utility disruptions, rendering some bridges or roadways impassable. Flight disruptions at regional airports and temporary port closures are also possible. Stagnant pools of water during and after flooding increase insect- and waterborne diseases, such as dengue fever, cholera, and malaria. Exposure to raw sewage and other hazardous materials mixed with floodwaters poses a serious health threat.