Mexico: Adverse weather conditions forecast across much of the country through at least Dec. 12

Severe weather conditions are forecast across much of Mexico through at least Dec. 12. A cold front will move southeastward over northern, eastern, and southeastern regions Dec. 10-11 before moving out into the Caribbean Sea Dec. 13. The front is forecast to bring heavy rainfall and thunderstorms to central, eastern, northern, northeastern, and southeastern regions over the coming days. Strong wind gusts, lightning, and possible hail may accompany storms. A cold air mass drawn in by the front will lead to a drop in temperatures across central, eastern, and northern Mexico. The front will also generate a surge of cold winds known as a Norte event, bringing strong wind gusts and rough seas to eastern, southeastern, and southern coastal areas.

Rainfall totals of 15-25 cm (6-10 inches) are expected in parts of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Tabasco, and Veracruz states and totals of 7.5-15 cm (3-6 inches) in parts of Campeche and Quintana Roo Dec. 11. Totals of 2.5-7.5 cm (1-3 inches) are expected across other parts of central, eastern, northeastern, and southeastern Mexico Dec. 10-12. The heavy downpours could trigger flooding in low-lying areas and landslides on unstable slopes. Winds gusting up to 120 kph (75 mph) are forecast in eastern coastal areas and the Gulf and Isthmus of Tehuantepec, as well as waves up to 6 meters (20 feet) along the coasts of Veracruz and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Temperatures could drop as low as -15 C (5 F) in mountainous areas of Chihuahua and Durango over the coming days.

Sustained heavy rainfall could trigger flooding in low-lying communities near rivers, streams, and creeks. Urban flooding is also possible in developed areas with easily overwhelmed stormwater drainage systems. Sites downstream from large reservoirs or rivers may be subject to flash flooding after relatively short periods of intense rainfall. Landslides are possible in hilly or mountainous areas, especially where heavy rainfall has saturated the soil.

The severe weather could contribute to transport disruptions throughout affected regions. Floodwaters and debris flows may render some bridges, rail networks, or roadways impassable, impacting overland travel in and around affected areas. Ponding on road surfaces could cause hazardous driving conditions on regional highways. Authorities could temporarily close some low-lying routes that become inundated by floodwaters.

Severe weather may also trigger flight delays and cancellations at airports across affected areas. Authorities may temporarily suspend port operations if strong winds trigger hazardous sea conditions, impacting freight and passenger maritime traffic. Flooding could block regional rail lines; freight and passenger train delays and cancellations are likely in areas with heavy rainfall and potential track inundation.